Nigeria: El Niño and Your Health - What Nigerians Must Do Before the Heat Peaks

You do not need a weather bulletin to know that nights have been challenging lately. Still, the bulletins are worth reading. Recently, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) recorded 41°C in Nguru, Yobe State, and 34°C in Lagos. In May, the agency issued a heat stress alert, with temperatures of between 40 and 45°C expected in some northern states. It also warned that dust in the air could raise the risk of meningitis.

The label "Super El Niño" is a media creation, not an official category. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says El Niño is firmly established and rapidly strengthening. It forecasts a seasonal average Pacific temperature anomaly of about 3.7°C above normal for October to December, peaking around December. That would be the highest since observations began. The previous record was 2.6°C. The WMO also says this event could be among the strongest since at least 1950.

Now, consider the mortality figures. Researchers at the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab combined seasonal temperature forecasts with research on how heat affects death rates. They estimate 451,000 additional heat deaths worldwide by February 2027. Nigeria accounts for 31,400 of them. This makes it the country most likely to record the highest heat mortality worldwide. These are extra deaths compared with the average for the same months from 1996 to 2025. The period runs from September 2026 to February 2027. It is a projection, not a body count, and it can change depending on what we do.

The truth is that many heat deaths go unnoticed. A man with high blood pressure has a stroke after a day in a tin-roofed workshop. A grandmother with weak kidneys becomes dehydrated and does not recover. A baby in an airless room develops a fever. The record will name the failing organ, and the weather often goes unmentioned. That is why heat-related deaths are so easily missed.

Rainfall is the other concern. For this season, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), which monitors food security, reports that cumulative rainfall deficits have been recorded across the Sahel. This includes parts of south-western, north-western and north-eastern Nigeria. The same report cites some of the most severe deficits in the north-east. Dry spells of more than eight consecutive days occurred in several Sahel areas between late August and 20 September. Late rains are unlikely to make up the full shortfall. A later FEWS NET report describes the deficits in north-eastern Nigeria as moderate.

A rainfall deficit is not the same as a declared drought. Yet, the trend points in one direction. NiMet's February forecast warned of prolonged dry spells and a severe August break in some parts of the country. That forecast assumed a mostly neutral climate pattern, and the Pacific has since changed. A senior NiMet meteorologist, Musa Tanko, expects the effects to be worse in the north. Rainfall could fall there and dry spells could lengthen, and he expects heat stress to peak between March and May 2027. He also cautions that some places may see long dry spells and sudden heavy rain in the same season. The WMO adds that its seasonal signals do not replace local forecasts.

Now, a poor harvest affects people far from the farm. Wells and streams run low, and people drink from whatever source is available. That is how dry weather leads to diarrhoea, cholera and malnutrition. Food prices then rise, and children are the first to eat less.

So who is most at risk? The researchers point to people over 65, children under five, people with chronic conditions, and outdoor workers such as farmers who have no way of cooling down. I would add pregnant women, whose bodies are already working harder. Poverty widens the gap. The same researchers note that more than 60% of Nigerians were estimated to live below the national poverty line in 2025. About 87.3 million Nigerians have no access to electricity. For many families, a good fan is unaffordable.

The government has a clear job here. It must issue heat warnings in plain language, keep clinics stocked and protect water supplies. We should demand all of it. However, a radio warning will not remind your father to drink water, and a policy paper will not cool a child's room. Those tasks are our responsibility.

Drink water regularly, not only when you are thirsty. You are already behind if your urine is dark. Keep sleeping rooms ventilated. Wet a cloth and cool a child's face and neck. Never leave anyone in a parked car, even for five minutes. Move heavy work to the early morning or the evening. If you must work in the afternoon, rest in the shade every hour. Employers and foremen share this duty. Give breaks. Provide water. Do not push people through the hottest hours.

You must know the danger signs. Confusion, heavy drowsiness, hot dry skin, vomiting or fainting may mean heatstroke. That is an emergency. Move the person into shade and remove excess clothing. Cool the skin with wet cloths and fanning, and rush the person to the hospital. Do not force fluids on someone who is not fully awake.

If you take medicine for blood pressure, diabetes, epilepsy or kidney problems, speak to a pharmacist or doctor this week. Some tablets make you pass more urine, which can worsen dehydration in the heat. Do not stop any medicine on your own. Stock for a few weeks in case the roads or the pharmacy become difficult to reach.

Water safety matters more as supplies shrink. Boil or treat what you drink. Keep storage containers covered. Wash your hands with soap. If a child has watery stools, start oral rehydration salts immediately. Take reports of cholera or meningitis near you seriously, and seek care early.

Then think about the people around you. Who lives alone on your street? Which elderly neighbour has no fan? Which relative in the north depends on a borehole that may soon run low? A phone call, a sachet of oral rehydration salts or a bottle of treated water can make a real difference to how that person copes.

Nothing we do will cool the Pacific. However, the projected toll is not fixed. The final count will depend on what households, employers and officials do in the coming months. A neighbour checked on, a worker given shade and a child given water in time all lower that number.

Ojenagbon, a health communication expert and certified management trainer, lives in Lagos.

Read the original article on Daily Trust.